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- CME FedWatch - CME Group
What is the likelihood that the Fed will change the Federal target rate at upcoming FOMC meetings, according to interest rate traders? Use CME FedWatch to track the probabilities of changes to the Fed rate, as implied by 30-Day Fed Funds futures prices
- CME FedWatch Tool User Guide - CME Group
Get an overview of how to read and use the CME FedWatch Tool to predict rate hike increase probability Learn more
- Why The FedWatch Tool Became a Key Interest Rates Indicator
The FedWatch tool from CME Group has emerged as a reliable resource for determining Federal Reserve rate moves The interest rates indicator uses Fed Funds’ futures prices to display current and historical probabilities of FOMC rate outcomes for a specific Fed meeting
- Introduction to the CME FedWatch Tool - CME Group
Using this information based on the federal funds rate, CME Group created the CME FedWatch Tool to act as a barometer for the market’s expectation of potential changes to the fed funds target rate while assessing potential Fed movements around FOMC meetings
- Fed Easing Cycles: Investors’ Initial Expectations Versus Final . . .
As an addendum, in February 2022, fixed income investors priced the Fed would take rates to around 2 125% by 2024 Instead, by July 2023, the Fed had rates at 5 375%, 325 bps beyond what the market had priced on the eve of the tightening cycle (Figure 3)
- January 2025 Rates Recap - CME Group
During Q4, those expectations were reined in towards anticipating a Fed rate of around 4% by the end of 2025 At the heart of the central banks' dilemma is that nearly everywhere inflation is still running above target In the U S , core inflation remains at 3 3%, 1 3% above the Fed's target
- October 2024 Rates Recap - CME Group
Fed Funds futures averaged 700K contracts day, also the second highest all-time monthly ADV Looking ahead, markets are currently pricing in a series of rate cuts over the next 12 months, including the next five on the calendar
- The CME FedWatch Tool Aggregated Enhancement, Explained
By referring to CME Group’s deep and liquid market for Fed Funds futures, the CME FedWatch Tool can translate market prices into expectations for the level of rates in the future and, consequently, any hikes or cuts that the Federal Reserve might make to its target rate
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