安裝中文字典英文字典辭典工具!
安裝中文字典英文字典辭典工具!
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- united states - What are the differences between these groups polled by . . .
Polling by FiveThirtyEight categorizes polls by these groups: A = ADULTS RV = REGISTERED VOTERS V = VOTERS LV = LIKELY VOTERS Is it correct that quot;LV quot; is a proper subset of quot;RV quo
- united states - Why has FiveThirtyEight stopped updating the . . .
I’ve been using FiveThirtyEight presidential election polling averages to keep track of the election predictions However, since Joe Biden dropped out they have stopped updating the polling average
- In the 538 Election Forecast, what is the difference between States . . .
In 538's Election Forecast, states are highlighted as either having "the closest races" or being "close to the tipping point" What is the difference between these two categories?
- Correlation between 538s urbanization index and vote margin 2020?
Using 538's urbanization index from the linked article - which appears to have been calculated in 2019, as well as the preliminary results at time of writing according to Dave Leip's Election Atlas, we can investigate this As in 2016, we find a fairly strong positive correlation between FiveThirtyEight's urbanization index and the two-party vote share in the state The correlation coefficient
- united states - Why do election predictions by FiveThirtyEight and . . .
538 pays a lot of attention to the quality, decay, and noise from polling data Silver uses Pollster rankings, trend line adjustments, and poll sample adjustments to enhance the performance of a run-of-the-mill polling average
- Why was the Economist model so sure Trump was going to lose compared to . . .
In comparison to the 538 model, the economist model uses less "fat tails" 538 uses a t-distribution to account for "black swan" events: things that, although they are unlikely, would have a big impact on the polls
- united states - What explanations can be offered for the extreme see . . .
This was actually one of the reasons that 538 originally started combining multiple polls into weighted aggregates: to increase the overall reliability The fact that even 538 seems to no longer be doing their aggregates for Senate races, and is now even burying the margin of error quality information 3 to 5 clicks deep is sad indeed
- united states - Why were there only 531 electoral votes in the US . . .
I just read this Wikipedia article It says Trump won with a 304 to 227 for electoral votes That's 304 + 227 = 531 votes But the total number should be 538 Where did the 7 votes go?
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