Unemployment Changes as Recession Indicators - Richmond Fed The 2012 paper "Another Look at Our Unemployment Recession Rule of Thumb (PDF)" argues that if the three-month moving average of the unemployment rate increases by more than 0 35 percentage points relative to its minimum in the previous year, the economy is in a recession
Unemployment Rate Sahm Rule: Key Recession Indicators The Sahm Rule states that, "when the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0 5 percentage point or more above its low over the prior twelve months, we are in the early months of recession"
Recessions and the Trend in the US Unemployment Rate The unemployment rate in the United States falls slowly in expansions, and it may not reach its previous low point before the next recession begins Based on this feature, I document that the frequent recessions prior to 1983 are associated with an upward trend in the unemployment rate
What is the unemployment rate in the US right now? | USAFacts In August 2025, the unemployment rate in the US was 4 3% The unemployment rate historically has increased during or shortly after the start of a recession As economic activity slows, demand for goods and services decreases, leading businesses to cut costs with layoffs or hiring freezes
Unemployment Rate and Recessions - iMarketSignals The model, updated with the March 2020 rate of 4 4%, does now signal a recession A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015)
The Fed - Unemployment Rate - Federal Reserve Board What is the unemployment rate? The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed people as a percentage of the labor force The labor force is made up of people who have a job and people who are jobless that are looking for a job and available for work How does the unemployment rate factor into the Fed's decisions?
Charted: The link between unemployment and recessions A low unemployment rate is a classic sign of a strong economy However, as this visualization shows, unemployment often reaches a cyclical low point right before a recession materializes